GBP/USD Forecast Today: Pound Under Pressure Near 1.33117

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 23, 2026, 06:33 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

The GBP/USD is trading lower during the active Asia session near 1.33117. Traders are positioning for high-impact UK and US S&P Global PMI releases scheduled for today.

Pound Under Pressure Ahead of PMI Releases

The British Pound is trading lower against the US Dollar during the active Asia session. GBP/USD is currently quoted at 1.33117, marking a daily decline of -0.00296 or -0.22% from the day open of 1.3338 and today's change relative to the previous close of 1.33413. The pair has moved within a daily range of 1.33455 at the high and 1.33077 at the low. This intraday movement of 37.8 pips represents 63% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which is currently at 0.00597 (59.7 pips). For live price updates and technical tools, check the live GBP/USD rate chart.

Trend and Momentum: Clear Bearish Alignment

Short- and long-term technical indicators show a unified bearish structure across the main timeframes. On the daily chart, the trend remains down as price is trading below its 20-day EMA of 1.34606, its 50-day EMA of 1.3467, and its 200-day EMA of 1.34295. This downward alignment is reinforced on the H4 timeframe, where the trend is down with the 20-day EMA at 1.33598 and the 50-day EMA at 1.34061. On the H1 chart, the trend is also down, with the 20-day EMA at 1.33335 and the 50-day EMA at 1.33511. Momentum confirms this downward trajectory, with the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 33.

Key Technical Levels for the Sessions Ahead

Market participants are watching immediate technical boundaries during today's sessions. The nearest resistance is the daily S1 pivot at 1.33125, which lies just 0.8 pips above the current price. If the pair attempts to recover, the daily pivot point P stands as further resistance at 1.33495, followed closely by the round level of 1.335. On the downside, the nearest support is S2 at 1.32838, situated 27.9 pips below. A further drop would bring the psychological round level of 1.33 into play.

Looking at historical boundaries, yesterday's bar printed a previous day high of 1.33864 and a previous day low of 1.33207. Over the last 5 days, the high was recorded at 1.34945 and the low was seen at 1.33207. For the broader 20-day window, the high is placed at 1.36494 and the low is established at 1.33207. If you are calculating support and resistance extensions, you can utilize our pivot point calculator to map out custom pivot zones.

Trading Scenarios for the UK and US Releases

To assist your planning, here are the primary conditional setups for the sessions ahead:

• Bullish Scenario: A break above the R1 resistance trigger at 1.33782 would open the way to the R2 target at 1.34152. A move back below the daily pivot invalidation level at 1.33495 would invalidate this positive outlook.
• Bearish Scenario: Alternatively, a break below the S2 support trigger at 1.32838 could expose the S3 target at 1.32468. This bearish outlook would be invalidated if the price moves back above the daily pivot invalidation level at 1.33495.

To manage potential risk on these setups, traders can utilize our position size calculator to keep exposure in line with their risk profile.

Fundamental Catalysts: S&P Global PMIs and Central Bank Speakers

Today's economic calendar brings high-impact releases that could increase volatility. At 08:30 UTC today, the UK S&P Global Services PMI is scheduled for release, with an estimate of 52 against a previous 52.5. Concurrently, the UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 51.4 versus the previous 51.7, and the Composite PMI will be released with a previous value of 52.5. Later today at 13:45 UTC, the US S&P Global Services PMI is estimated at 56 compared to 56.5 previously, while the US Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 53.5 compared to 53.9 previously, alongside the US Composite PMI which previously printed at 56.

Federal Reserve speakers also highlight the docket, with Barr scheduled to speak today at 14:05 UTC. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Fed's Williams is scheduled to speak at 08:10 UTC, while the Bank of England's Breeden and Dhingra are both scheduled to speak tomorrow at 09:30 UTC. US Initial Jobless Claims are also scheduled for tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, with an estimate of 201 versus a previous reading of 196.

In the newsflow, commentators have noted a strengthening US Dollar weighing on major currency pairs, as reported by FXEmpire and Forexcom, with the latter pointing out that the Sterling sell-off has broken an uptrend established in June. Additional coverage from FX Street and InvestingCube suggests that domestic UK public borrowing figures and broader USD resilience have kept the Sterling under pressure.

Providing broader context, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the week to September 15, 2026, indicated that large speculators held a net short GBP/USD position, though speculators reduced net short GBP/USD exposure slightly over that weekly period. In the US bond market, daily closing yields on September 22, 2026, showed the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.71% after dropping 5 basis points, while the 10-year yield finished at 4.96% with no basis point change. Looking at media mood, the news sentiment for GBP/USD shows a 59% bullish share, with the media mood scoring 100 out of 100, while the independent opportunity read registered a bearish -29.

Bottom Line

The GBP/USD starts the day with aligned bearish momentum across all major timeframes, trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs. With critical UK and US S&P Global PMI data scheduled for today, the pair is likely to see heightened volatility as these metrics test the dollar's recent strength. Traders should closely watch the immediate levels around S1 at 1.33125 and S2 at 1.32838 to determine if the prevailing downward trend will extend.