Forex Weekly Forecast: RBA Decision and US Labor Tests

Week ahead Neutral bias Sep 27, 2026, 21:06 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

Major currency pairs face a high-impact economic calendar this week, with the RBA rate decision and US labor data testing key levels on AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

Because cash forex markets are currently closed, the prices discussed in this analysis represent the last prints before the weekend rather than live quotes. We adopt a neutral directional bias as daily trends across major instruments remain highly conflicted. The single most critical level to monitor going into the weekly open is the EUR/USD support floor at S1 at 1.13681, which sits just below the pair's last print of 1.13755. A break below S1 at 1.13681 would open the way for a continuation of the daily downtrend, while a failure to clear it could trigger a near-term rebound.

Before cash markets shut, EUR/USD closed the week at 1.13755, down 0.13% on the day, with a 5-day percentage decline of -0.96% under downward daily and H4 trends. GBP/USD fell 0.11% on the day to 1.32292, registering a 5-day loss of -1.22%. On the other side, USD/CAD finished at 1.41298, down -0.07% on the day but up 1.06% over the last 5 days. AUD/USD fell 0.24% on the day to 0.70048, down -1.66% over 5 days with a mixed daily trend.

RBA Interest Rate Decision: Will the Aussie Dollar Find Support?

On Tuesday at 04:30 UTC, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision, which is estimated to increase the policy rate to 4.6% from the previous 4.35%. This high-impact event will be accompanied by the RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement, followed by the RBA Press Conference at 05:30 UTC. Furthermore, on Wednesday at 01:30 UTC, Australia's Trimmed Mean CPI (previous 3.6%) and CPI YoY (estimated at 4.1% against a previous 3.5%) will release, followed by Thursday's Trade Balance (previous 1923) at 00:30 UTC.

The AUD/USD outlook remains highly exposed to these releases. Key technical levels to watch on AUD/USD using a pivot point calculator include the daily pivot at 0.70221, R1 resistance at 0.70414, and S1 support at 0.70025.

US Labor Market Focus and Inflation Expectations

Scheduled US labor and inflation releases will test the broader USD trend. On Wednesday at 12:15 UTC, the US ADP Employment Change is estimated to print at 70, up from the previous 38. This is followed at 12:30 UTC by the Core PCE Price Index YoY, which is estimated to rise to 3.4% compared to the previous 3.3%, alongside an estimated monthly PCE increase of 0.3% against the previous 0.2%. On Thursday at 14:00 UTC, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.8, up slightly from the previous 54.6.

These figures will directly impact the USD/CAD weekly forecast, where technical levels include the daily pivot at 1.41394, R1 resistance at 1.41538, and S1 support at 1.41252. European data will also emerge on Wednesday, with German Retail Sales YoY (previous -2.5%) and UK GDP YoY (estimated at 1.2% and previous 1.2%) releasing at 06:00 UTC. Check our economic calendar to track these events in real time.

Analyst Views, Market Positioning, and Yield Context

Themes across prominent market headlines focus heavily on central bank divergence and asset resilience. According to reports published by Forexcom, analyst commentary highlighted gold's technical resilience in the face of climbing US yields and a strong dollar, while focusing on global inflation and payroll numbers. Additionally, ExchangeRates reported on JP Morgan's USD/JPY forecast pointing to 156.50-156.60 after a yen rebound, alongside survey projections of sterling depreciation against the Euro. FXEmpire noted that buyers returned to defend established gold support. For context, Gold finished the week at 4285.15, up 0.27% on the day but down -2.13% over 5 days.

This newsflow aligns with recent positioning trends. Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 22, 2026, shows speculators added to net short EUR/USD and AUD/USD positions, while reducing net short exposure in USD/JPY. Speculators also added to net long positions in USD/CAD, while reducing net long positions in Gold. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields closed on September 25, 2026, with the 2-year yield at 4.81% (down 6 basis points from September 24) and the 10-year yield at 5.17% (down 1 basis point).

Key Currency Technicals: Assessing Major Pairs

For traders mapping out setups, managing risk with a risk and reward calculator is essential. On EUR/USD, which closed at 1.13755, the daily and H4 trends remain down. A sustained move below S1 at 1.13681 would open the way for further bearish extensions. Conversely, a move back above the daily pivot at 1.13892 would open the way toward R1 at 1.14109, and clearing that level would invalidate the bearish outlook.

For USD/CAD, which closed at 1.41298, the daily and H4 trends are upward. A break above R1 at 1.41538 would open the way to test higher resistance areas. On the downside, a slide below S1 at 1.41252 would invalidate the bullish trend structure and open the way for deeper corrections.