Ethereum (ETH/USD) Forecast Today: Eyes On $2,729 Resistance

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 1, 2026, 11:22 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

ETH trades near $2,700.47, up 0.60% on the day, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing up above the daily pivot at $2,692.66.

Where Ethereum Stands Now

Ethereum trades at $2,700.47 during the London session, up 0.60% ($16.20) from the previous close at $2,684.27. The day's range has run from a high of $2,720.10 to a low of $2,674.74, a spread of $45.36 that covers about 49% of the 14-day ATR of $93.30, leaving the session well short of its usual volatility band so far. Yesterday's candle closed at $2,683.93, inside a $81.50 range between a low of $2,656.27 and a high of $2,737.77.

Trend and Momentum

All three timeframes agree. The daily chart is in an uptrend with price above its 20-day EMA at $2,618.60, 50-day EMA at $2,446.04 and 200-day EMA at $2,266.32. The four-hour trend is also up, holding above its 20-period EMA at $2,683.70 and 50-period EMA at $2,675.61, and the one-hour trend confirms it, trading above its 20-period EMA at $2,690.82 and 50-period EMA at $2,687.92. Daily RSI reads 62.2, firm but short of overbought, alongside a 20-day gain of 10.79% and a smaller 5-day gain of 0.34%.

Levels That Matter

The nearest resistance is R1 at $2,729.04, $28.57 above current trade, while the nearest support is the daily pivot at $2,692.66, just $7.81 below. Further out, the pivot grid adds R2 at $2,774.16 and R3 at $2,810.54 on the upside, with S1 at $2,647.54, S2 at $2,611.16 and S3 at $2,566.04 below — levels that can be built out further with the pivot point calculator. Yesterday's session left a high of $2,737.77 and a low of $2,656.27. The 5-day range spans a high of $2,748.05 and a low of $2,634.38, while the wider 20-day range runs from a high of $2,807.10 to a low of $2,356.82. The $2,700 round number sits just below spot, with $2,750 the next round figure overhead.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A push through R1 at $2,729.04 would open the way to R2 at $2,774.16, a move covering $45.12; that view would be invalidated by a drop back below the daily pivot at $2,692.66. On the other side, a break under S1 at $2,647.54 would shift focus to S2 at $2,611.16, a decline of $36.38, with a recovery back above the daily pivot at $2,692.66 negating the setup. Either path can be sized with the risk and reward calculator before acting.

What Could Move ETH Today

The calendar is loaded. Initial Jobless Claims lands at 12:30 UTC, with an estimate of 200 against a previous reading of 197. At 14:00 UTC, ISM Manufacturing PMI is due with a 55 estimate versus a 54.6 previous, alongside the ISM Prices Paid index (previous 71.1, estimate 72.3), the New Orders Index (previous 53.7) and the Employment Index (previous 51.2); see the economic calendar guide for how to read a release stack like this. Fed officials also speak through the session: Waller at 14:00 UTC, Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, Bowman at 19:00 UTC, and Williams and Cook both at 19:30 UTC. Tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC, with an estimate of 90 well below the previous reading of 162, alongside Average Hourly Earnings (previous 3.1% year-over-year), the Unemployment Rate (previous 4.1%, estimate 4.1%) and the U6 Underemployment Rate (previous 7.7%).

Today's newsflow centers on MetaMask's exit from Ethereum staking validators following a security incident, as reported by Blockonomi and Crypto news, alongside separate commentary on spot demand versus leverage from Cryptonews and a more constructive sell-side view on crypto from Invezz. News sentiment on ETH reads neutral, with the opportunity score at 3 after swinging from -22 a day earlier.

Bottom Line

Ethereum holds a bullish technical setup, trading above all three major daily EMAs with aligned uptrends on the four-hour and one-hour charts, sitting just above the daily pivot at $2,692.66 and below R1 at $2,729.04. A clean break of R1 would point toward R2 at $2,774.16, while a slip under the pivot would shift attention toward S1 at $2,647.54. With today's range still only about half of the 14-day ATR, room remains for a larger move once the ISM data and Fed speakers are through.