Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast Today: Pressed Toward S1
Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades at 73384.8 in the Asia session, down 1.25% on the day and just above S1 at 73361.04. Daily, H4 and H1 trends all point down, with the daily pivot at 74039.79 as the nearest resistance.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 76,618.88 | S1 | 73,361.04 |
| R2 | 75,668.71 | S2 | 72,410.87 |
| R1 | 74,989.96 | S3 | 71,732.12 |
| Previous day high | 74,718.55 | Previous day low | 73,089.63 |
| 20-day high | 81,950.61 | 20-day low | 72,626.12 |
| Daily pivot 74,039.79. Data as of 2026-11-12 06:54 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
Where Bitcoin (BTC/USD) stands in Asia
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) sits between S1 at 73361.04 and the daily pivot at 74039.79, and the trend evidence leans lower. Nearest support is S1 at 73361.04, 23.76 dollars under the last price, while nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 74039.79, 654.99 dollars overhead.
The last price is 73384.8, a change of -926.4 dollars, or -1.25%, on the day from the previous close at 74311.2. The day open is 74316.04, the day high is 74478.48 and the day low is 73372.79. On the live Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rate, the bid is 73384.8 and the ask is 73399.8, a spread of 15 dollars.
The day range is 1105.69 dollars, 48% of the 14-day ATR at 2283.09. That range covers the whole day so far, not the Asia session by itself. The clock is 06:54 UTC, and London opens at 07:00 UTC.
Trend and momentum line up lower
The daily trend is down. Price is below the 200-day EMA at 76180.21, with the 20-day EMA at 77277.66 and the 50-day EMA at 78790.46 also above the market. Daily RSI (14) reads 37.2.
The four-hour trend is down. The H4 20-period EMA is at 74249.58 and the H4 50-period EMA is at 75408.96. The one-hour trend is down as well: the H1 20-period EMA is at 73812.1 and the H1 50-period EMA is at 74004.36, both above 73384.8.
Daily, H4 and H1 agree on down, so the read stays bearish. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is down 3.1% over five days and down 9.59% over 20 days. The H1 50-period EMA at 74004.36, the round level at 74000 and the daily pivot at 74039.79 all sit above the last price.
Levels around this Asia print
Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 74039.79. Nearest support is S1 at 73361.04. Above price, the pivot points place that daily pivot at 74039.79, then R1 at 74989.96, R2 at 75668.71 and R3 at 76618.88. Below price, S1 is at 73361.04, S2 is at 72410.87 and S3 is at 71732.12.
The previous day high is 74718.55 and the previous day low is 73089.63. Yesterday's open was 73763.18, yesterday's close was 74311.2 and yesterday's range was 1628.92 dollars.
The five-day high is 76148.43 and the five-day low is 72626.12. The 20-day high is 81950.61 and the 20-day low is 72626.12.
The round level below price is 73000. The round level above price is 74000.
Bullish and bearish paths
If price reclaims the upside pivots
The bullish path starts with a break above R1 at 74989.96, which would open the way to R2 at 75668.71. The span from that trigger to that target is 678.75 dollars. A move back below the daily pivot at 74039.79 would invalidate it. The pivot is the invalidation, not the trigger, and the last price at 73384.8 is still under that pivot.
If S1 gives way
S1 at 73361.04 is the bearish trigger, and only 23.76 dollars separate it from 73384.8. Should that level give way, S2 at 72410.87 is the next downside reference, 950.17 dollars from the trigger. The bearish path loses its structure on a return above the daily pivot at 74039.79.
Calendar, coverage and positioning
London opens at 07:00 UTC, ahead of the US items later today. Initial Jobless Claims is on today's economic calendar at 13:30 UTC, previous 189 and estimate 195. Fed's Hammack speech is at 14:00 UTC. At 15:00 UTC the slate lists Fed's Barr speech and Existing Home Sales Change (MoM), the home-sales figure carrying a previous reading of 1.5 and no estimate. Fed's Goolsbee speech is at 16:30 UTC, Fed's Daly speech at 18:10 UTC and Fed's Schmid speech at 18:30 UTC. The Monthly Budget Statement is at 19:00 UTC, previous -27 and estimate -298.6, and Fed's Williams speech is at 23:30 UTC.
Tokenpost's morning coverage groups around Bitcoin spot ETF and ETP holdings and flows, and around Bitcoin short positions that have come close to being liquidated.
As of the week to November 3, 2026, large speculators were net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), with 53.8% long and 46.2% short, a net 2230 contracts. Speculators reduced net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from 2720 contracts the prior week, a change of -490 contracts, which describes positioning and not the next move.
News coverage volume is 113% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read is bearish at -75, a coverage score rather than a forecast or a positioning gauge.
Bottom line
Into the London open at 07:00 UTC, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is at 73384.8, down 1.25% on the day, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down and daily RSI at 37.2. S1 at 73361.04 is 23.76 dollars below, and the daily pivot at 74039.79 is 654.99 dollars above. A break below S1 at 73361.04 would bring S2 at 72410.87 into view, while a break above R1 at 74989.96 would be required before R2 at 75668.71 is the upside reference, and a move back below the daily pivot at 74039.79 would invalidate that upside path.
FAQ
Which Federal Reserve speeches are on today's calendar?
Today's calendar lists Fed's Hammack speech at 14:00 UTC, Fed's Barr speech at 15:00 UTC, Fed's Goolsbee speech at 16:30 UTC, Fed's Daly speech at 18:10 UTC, Fed's Schmid speech at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Williams speech at 23:30 UTC. No previous reading or estimate is attached to those speeches.
Is Bitcoin (BTC/USD) above or below the daily pivot?
The last price at 73384.8 is between S1 at 73361.04 and the daily pivot at 74039.79, so it is below the pivot. Nearest support is S1, 23.76 dollars away, and nearest resistance is the daily pivot, 654.99 dollars away.
Do the daily, four-hour and one-hour trends agree?
Yes. The daily, H4 and H1 trends are all down, daily RSI (14) is 37.2, and price is below the 200-day EMA at 76180.21.
How were large speculators positioned in Bitcoin futures?
As of the week to November 3, 2026, large speculators were net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), 53.8% long and 46.2% short, with a net 2230 contracts. They reduced that net long from 2720 contracts the previous week. The report is not a forecast.
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