Seykota Alt 43: Volatility Adaptive

// This Pine Script® code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © danieltuckerrust
// ALTERNATIVE 43: Volatility-Adaptive Profit Targets
// THEORY: Profit targets adapt to ATR expansion/contraction instead of time
// - ATR Expanding (trend accelerating): Wide targets (4N, 7N, 10N) - catch parabolic moves
// - ATR Stable (normal trending): Standard targets (3N, 6N, 9N)
// - ATR Contracting (trend weakening): Tight targets (2N, 4N, 6N) - book profits faster
// INSIGHT: Alt39's time-based approach is arbitrary. Volatility changes reflect actual trend strength.
// HYPOTHESIS: This catches parabolic moves better and exits weakening trends faster than time-based.
// Expected to improve: SPY (catch slow acceleration), Tech stocks (catch explosive moves)

//@version=6
strategy("Seykota Alt 43: Volatility Adaptive v1.0",
     overlay=true,
     initial_capital=100000,
     commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.005,
     slippage=2,
     default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, default_qty_value=0,
     pyramiding=10,
     max_bars_back=5000)

allowLong = input.bool(true, "Allow LONGs?"), allowShort = input.bool(true, "Allow SHORTs?")
entryLen = input.int(55, "Donchian ENTRY", minval=10), nLen = input.int(20, "N = ATR length", minval=5)
stopN = input.float(2.0, "Initial stop (N)", minval=0.5, step=0.25)
trailLen = input.int(22, "Trail lookback", minval=5), trailN = input.float(3.0, "Trail (N)", minval=0.5, step=0.25)
addStepN = input.float(0.5, "Add every X*N", minval=0.25, step=0.25), maxUnits = input.int(4, "Max units", minval=1, maxval=10)
riskPct = input.float(1.0, "Risk % per unit", minval=0.1, maxval=5, step=0.1)
useTargets = input.bool(true, "Use adaptive targets?")

// Volatility regime detection
atrLookback = input.int(20, "ATR regime lookback", minval=10)
expandThresh = input.float(1.15, "Expansion threshold", minval=1.05, step=0.05)  // ATR > 115% of MA = expanding
contractThresh = input.float(0.85, "Contraction threshold", maxval=0.95, step=0.05)  // ATR < 85% of MA = contracting

expandT1 = input.float(4.0, "Expanding T1 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), expandT2 = input.float(7.0, "Expanding T2 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), expandT3 = input.float(10.0, "Expanding T3 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5)
standardT1 = input.float(3.0, "Standard T1 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), standardT2 = input.float(6.0, "Standard T2 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), standardT3 = input.float(9.0, "Standard T3 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5)
contractT1 = input.float(2.0, "Contracting T1 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), contractT2 = input.float(4.0, "Contracting T2 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5), contractT3 = input.float(6.0, "Contracting T3 (N)", minval=1, step=0.5)
useMarket = input.bool(false, "Use regime filter?"), marketSym = input.symbol("SPY", "Market symbol")
marketTF = input.timeframe("D", "Regime TF"), marketLen = input.int(200, "Market MA", minval=50)
minVol = input.int(0, "Min volume", minval=0), showSignals = input.bool(true, "Plot signals?"), plotDon = input.bool(true, "Plot Donchian?")
fromDate = input.time(defval=timestamp("2022-01-01T00:00:00"), title="FROM", confirm=true)
toDate = input.time(defval=timestamp("2099-12-31T23:59:59"), title="TO", confirm=true)
flatAtFrom = input.bool(true, "FLAT at range start?")
isRangeStart = (time[1] < fromDate) and (time >= fromDate)
if flatAtFrom and isRangeStart and strategy.position_size != 0
    strategy.close_all(comment="Flat at FROM")

sharesForUnit(_e, _n) =>
    r = _e * (riskPct/100.0)
    psr = math.max(stopN * _n, syminfo.mintick)
    math.max(1, math.floor(r / psr))

inRange = (time >= fromDate) and (time <= toDate)
N = ta.atr(nLen)
atrMA = ta.sma(N, atrLookback)  // ATR moving average for regime detection
volMA = ta.sma(volume, 20), liqOK = volMA >= minVol
donHi = ta.highest(high, entryLen), donLo = ta.lowest(low, entryLen)
donHiPrev = donHi[1], donLoPrev = donLo[1]
trailHighest = ta.highest(high, trailLen), trailLowest = ta.lowest(low, trailLen)
mClose = request.security(marketSym, marketTF, close), mMA = request.security(marketSym, marketTF, ta.sma(close, marketLen))
longRegOK = not useMarket or (mClose > mMA), shortRegOK = not useMarket or (mClose < mMA)
longBreak = allowLong and liqOK and longRegOK and (close > donHiPrev)
shortBreak = allowShort and liqOK and shortRegOK and (close < donLoPrev)

// Detect volatility regime
atrRatio = N / atrMA
isExpanding = atrRatio > expandThresh  // ATR expanding = trend accelerating
isContracting = atrRatio < contractThresh  // ATR contracting = trend weakening
isStable = not isExpanding and not isContracting

var float N_entry = na, var float entryPrice = na, var float lastAddLong = na, var float lastAddShort = na
var int units = 0, var int barsInPos = 0, var bool t1 = false, var bool t2 = false, var bool t3 = false
inPos = strategy.position_size != 0, inLong = strategy.position_size > 0, inShort = strategy.position_size < 0
if inPos
    barsInPos += 1
else
    barsInPos := 0, units := 0, lastAddLong := na, lastAddShort := na, N_entry := na, entryPrice := na, t1 := false, t2 := false, t3 := false

if inRange and not inPos and longBreak
    N_entry := N, entryPrice := close, strategy.entry("L", strategy.long, qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry))
    units := 1, lastAddLong := close
if inRange and not inPos and shortBreak
    N_entry := N, entryPrice := close, strategy.entry("S", strategy.short, qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry))
    units := 1, lastAddShort := close

if inRange and inLong and units < maxUnits and high >= nz(lastAddLong) + addStepN * N_entry
    strategy.entry("L", strategy.long, qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry)), units += 1, lastAddLong := close
if inRange and inShort and units < maxUnits and low <= nz(lastAddShort) - addStepN * N_entry
    strategy.entry("S", strategy.short, qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry)), units += 1, lastAddShort := close

// Select targets based on VOLATILITY REGIME instead of time
var float activeT1 = na, var float activeT2 = na, var float activeT3 = na
if useTargets and inLong and not na(entryPrice) and not na(N_entry)
    if isExpanding
        activeT1 := expandT1, activeT2 := expandT2, activeT3 := expandT3  // Wide targets for acceleration
    else if isContracting
        activeT1 := contractT1, activeT2 := contractT2, activeT3 := contractT3  // Tight targets for weakness
    else
        activeT1 := standardT1, activeT2 := standardT2, activeT3 := standardT3  // Standard for stability

    if not t1 and high >= entryPrice + activeT1 * N_entry
        strategy.close("L", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T1"), t1 := true
    if t1 and not t2 and high >= entryPrice + activeT2 * N_entry
        strategy.close("L", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T2"), t2 := true
    if t2 and not t3 and high >= entryPrice + activeT3 * N_entry
        strategy.close("L", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T3"), t3 := true

if useTargets and inShort and not na(entryPrice) and not na(N_entry)
    if isExpanding
        activeT1 := expandT1, activeT2 := expandT2, activeT3 := expandT3
    else if isContracting
        activeT1 := contractT1, activeT2 := contractT2, activeT3 := contractT3
    else
        activeT1 := standardT1, activeT2 := standardT2, activeT3 := standardT3

    if not t1 and low <= entryPrice - activeT1 * N_entry
        strategy.close("S", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T1"), t1 := true
    if t1 and not t2 and low <= entryPrice - activeT2 * N_entry
        strategy.close("S", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T2"), t2 := true
    if t2 and not t3 and low <= entryPrice - activeT3 * N_entry
        strategy.close("S", qty=sharesForUnit(strategy.equity, N_entry), comment="T3"), t3 := true

var float stopL = na, var float stopS = na
if inRange and inLong
    stopL := math.round_to_mintick(math.max(entryPrice - stopN * N_entry, trailHighest - trailN * N_entry))
    strategy.exit("L-EXIT", from_entry="L", stop=stopL)
else
    stopL := na
if inRange and inShort
    stopS := math.round_to_mintick(math.min(entryPrice + stopN * N_entry, trailLowest + trailN * N_entry))
    strategy.exit("S-EXIT", from_entry="S", stop=stopS)
else
    stopS := na

plot(plotDon ? donHi : na, "DonHi", color=color.new(color.blue, 40))
plot(plotDon ? donLo : na, "DonLo", color=color.new(color.blue, 40))
plotshape(showSignals and longBreak, title="L", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.green, 0))
plotshape(showSignals and shortBreak, title="S", style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.red, 0))
// Color based on volatility regime: green = expanding, orange = stable, red = contracting
regimeColor = isExpanding ? color.green : (isContracting ? color.red : color.orange)
plot(showSignals and inLong ? stopL : na, "Stop", color=color.new(regimeColor, 0), style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth=2)
plot(showSignals and inShort ? stopS : na, "Stop", color=color.new(regimeColor, 0), style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth=2)