This indicator uses a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework combined with an adaptive dual moving average engine and Directional Movement Index (DMI) features to identify market regimes (bullish, bearish, or ranging/chop). It calculates regime probabilities on e
Indicator · Pine Script v5 · On the chart
First Passage Time - Distribution Analysis
This indicator calculates first passage time distributions using Monte Carlo simulations based on historical log returns and volatility.
GitHub stars2on the repository
Pine versionv5runs as is
Lines of code415
Settings15inputs
LicenceNone stated
Last update8 months ago25 Feb 2026
Add It to Your TradingView Chart
- 1Copy the scriptPress Copy script above. It reads the file straight from GitHub.
- 2Open the Pine EditorOpen a TradingView chart and choose Pine Editor at the bottom of the screen.
- 3Paste over the templateCreate a new indicator, select all of the template text and paste. Press Save and give it a name.
- 4Add it to the chartPress Add to chart, then adjust the settings with the gear icon next to its name.
Source Code
The code stays on GitHub. The author has not published this script under an open licence, so ForexR does not show its code. Copy script reads the file straight from GitHub into your clipboard, so you can still try it on your own chart. Ask the author before reusing the code anywhere else.
Overview
First Passage Time - Distribution Analysis models the time required for price to reach configured percentage threshold targets above or below current market levels. The script runs simulations on the final bar, displaying risk zones, statistics, and customizable labels on the main price chart. Settings allow customization of simulation counts, lookback periods, drift modes, and visual styling.
- Monte Carlo simulations for price path modeling
- First passage time analysis for upside and downside thresholds
- Customizable drift options including historical, zero, and reduced drift
- Chart overlay showing risk zones and statistical labels
Details
Published by
regalouisei on GitHub
Type
Indicator, Pine Script v5
Draws
On the price chart
Category
Volatility & bands, AI / machine learning
Markets
Any symbol
Timeframes
Any timeframe
Risk Notes
No repainting, lookahead or stacked entries were found in its code or README. That says nothing about how well it works: test it first.
Settings
The inputs you can change from the gear icon on the chart. Defaults are the author's.
| Setting | Type | Default | Variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold % | float | 5.0 | threshold_pct |
| Volatility Lookback Period | int | 60 | volatility_period |
| Monte Carlo Simulations | int | 1000 | num_simulations |
| Show Risk Zones | bool | true | show_zones |
| Show Chart Labels | bool | true | show_labels |
| Distribution Type | string | Percentile | distribution_type |
| Maximum Periods to Simulate | int | 1000 | max_periods |
| Projection Bars | int | 25 | projection_bars |
| Show Diagnostics | bool | false | show_diagnostics |
| Drift Mode | string | Historical | drift_mode |
| Label Size | string | Normal | label_size_option |
| Upside Label Color | color | color.new(color.green, 10) | label_upside_color |
Show all 15 settings
| Setting | Type | Default | Variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside Label Color | color | color.new(color.red, 10) | label_downside_color |
| Label Text Color | color | color.white | label_text_color |
| Table Font Size | string | Normal | table_font_size |
Third-party code. ForexR did not write, test or endorse this script, and the summary above was generated automatically from its code and README. Indicators describe the past, and a strategy's backtest can look better than live trading, especially when a script repaints. Check it in the Strategy Tester and on a demo account before you rely on it.
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