Built-in Kelly ratio for dynamic position sizing.pine
//@version=4
strategy("Built-in Kelly ratio for position sizing", overlay=true, initial_capital=10000, default_qty_type=strategy.cash, default_qty_value=10000, currency="USD", commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.1)
c = close
useKelly = input(true, "Kelly Ratio Position Sizing")
krp = strategy.wintrades / strategy.closedtrades
krw = strategy.grossprofit / strategy.wintrades
krl = strategy.grossloss / strategy.losstrades
kr = ((krp - (1-krp) / (krw/krl)) * 100) / 100
qty = 10000.0
if useKelly
qty := 10000.0 / c
if kr > 0
qty := (strategy.equity * kr) / c
i_startTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Mar 1900 00:00 +0000"), title = "Start Time", type = input.time)
i_endTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Mar 2221 00:00 +0000"), title = "End Time", type = input.time)
inDateRange = time >= i_startTime and time <= i_endTime
length = input(20, minval=1)
mult = input(1.0, "Multiplier")
src = input(close, title="Source")
exp = input(true, "Use Exponential MA")
BandsStyle = input("Average True Range", options = ["Average True Range", "True Range", "Range"], title="Bands Style")
atrlength = input(10, "ATR Length")
esma(source, length)=>
s = sma(source, length)
e = ema(source, length)
exp ? e : s
ma = esma(src, length)
rangema = BandsStyle == "True Range" ? rma(tr(true), length) : BandsStyle == "Average True Range" ? atr(atrlength) : rma(high - low, length)
upper = ma + rangema * mult
lower = ma - rangema * mult
crossUpper = crossover(src, upper)
crossLower = crossunder(src, lower)
bprice = 0.0
bprice := crossUpper ? high+syminfo.mintick : nz(bprice[1])
sprice = 0.0
sprice := crossLower ? low -syminfo.mintick : nz(sprice[1])
crossBcond = false
crossBcond := crossUpper ? true
: na(crossBcond[1]) ? false : crossBcond[1]
crossScond = false
crossScond := crossLower ? true
: na(crossScond[1]) ? false : crossScond[1]
cancelBcond = crossBcond and (src < ma or high >= bprice )
cancelScond = crossScond and (src > ma or low <= sprice )
if inDateRange
if useKelly
if (cancelBcond)
strategy.cancel("Long")
if (crossUpper)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty, stop=bprice, comment="Long")
if (cancelScond)
strategy.cancel("Short")
if (crossLower)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty, stop=sprice, comment="Short")
else
if (cancelBcond)
strategy.cancel("Long")
if (crossUpper)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, stop=bprice, comment="Long")
if (cancelScond)
strategy.cancel("Short")
if (crossLower)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, stop=sprice, comment="Short")
usetp = input(false, "use Take Profit")
usesl = input(false, "use Stop Loss")
tp = input(10.0, "take profit") / 100
sl = input(1.0, "stop loss") / 100
avg = strategy.position_avg_price
longprofit = avg*tp/syminfo.mintick
longloss = avg*sl/syminfo.mintick
shortprofit = avg*tp/syminfo.mintick
shortloss = avg*sl/syminfo.mintick
if usetp and not usesl
strategy.exit("Long Exit", "Long", profit=longprofit)
strategy.exit("Short Exit", "Short", profit=shortprofit)
if usesl and not usetp
strategy.exit("Long Exit", "Long", loss=longloss)
strategy.exit("Short Exit", "Short", loss=shortloss)
if usetp and usesl
strategy.exit("Long Exit", "Long", profit=longprofit, loss=longloss)
strategy.exit("Short Exit", "Short", profit=shortprofit, loss=shortloss)
plotchar(krp * 100, "% profitable", "")
plotchar(krw, "avg win", "")
plotchar(krl, "avg loss", "")
plotchar(strategy.equity, "Equity", "")
plotchar(qty*c, "Quantity", "")
Expand (97 lines)
Overview
Long and short orders are cancelled if price returns through the average or reaches the stored stop price. Optional Kelly sizing scales quantity from closed-trade win rate and average win versus loss when the ratio is positive. Take profit and stop loss are both off by default, so there is no protective exit unless those inputs are enabled. A start and end time limits when orders are allowed.
The inputs you can change from the gear icon on the chart. Defaults are the author's.
Setting
Type
Default
Variable
Kelly Ratio Position Sizing
bool
true
useKelly
Start Time
time
timestamp("01 Mar 1900 00:00 +0000")
i_startTime
End Time
time
timestamp("01 Mar 2221 00:00 +0000")
i_endTime
length
int
20
length
Multiplier
float
1.0
mult
Source
source
close
src
Use Exponential MA
bool
true
exp
Bands Style
string
Average True Range
BandsStyle
ATR Length
int
10
atrlength
use Take Profit
bool
false
usetp
use Stop Loss
bool
false
usesl
take profit
float
10.0
tp
Show all 13 settings
Setting
Type
Default
Variable
stop loss
float
1.0
sl
Third-party code. ForexR did not write, test or endorse this script, and the summary above was generated automatically from its code and README. Indicators describe the past, and a strategy's backtest can look better than live trading, especially when a script repaints. Check it in the Strategy Tester and on a demo account before you rely on it.
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