Indicator · Pine Script v5 · On the chart

ATLAS Probabilistic Reach Map

by AssetWhisper

An overlay indicator that draws a heat map to the right of the last bar showing the estimated probability that price touches each of several levels above and below within growing time horizons.

View on GitHub

GitHub stars1on the repository
Pine versionv5runs as is
Lines of code352
Settings17inputs
LicenceMPL-2.0
Last update7 weeks ago10 Sep 2026

Add It to Your TradingView Chart

  1. 1Copy the scriptPress Copy script above, or the copy button on the code below.
  2. 2Open the Pine EditorOpen a TradingView chart and choose Pine Editor at the bottom of the screen.
  3. 3Paste over the templateCreate a new indicator, select all of the template text and paste. Press Save and give it a name.
  4. 4Add it to the chartPress Add to chart, then adjust the settings with the gear icon next to its name.

Source Code

352 lines of Pine Script v5 from indicators/ATLAS_Probabilistic_Reach_Map.pine, published under MPL-2.0. Keep the author's credit and licence lines when you reuse it.

ATLAS_Probabilistic_Reach_Map.pine
//@version=5
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © AssetWhisper — https://assetwhisper.com/indicators/
// ============================================================================
//  ATLAS — Adaptive Touch-probability Landscape & Self-calibration
//
//  Cambia la pregunta. Los indicadores clásicos responden "¿entro?". ATLAS responde
//  "¿a dónde puede llegar el precio, cuándo, con qué probabilidad, cuánto cuesta
//  llegar y me puedo fiar de ese cálculo hoy?". Cuatro piezas que no existen
//  juntas en TradingView:
//
//  1) MAPA DE PROBABILIDAD DE TOQUE. Para una rejilla de niveles (±k pasos) y
//     horizontes (1x, 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x barras) calcula la probabilidad de que el
//     precio TOQUE cada nivel dentro de cada horizonte con la fórmula cerrada del
//     primer paso de un browniano con drift (distribución inversa gaussiana):
//        P(τ_a ≤ T) = Φ((−a + μT)/(σ√T)) + e^{2μa/σ²} · Φ((−a − μT)/(σ√T))
//     y lo dibuja como un mapa de calor en el espacio futuro precio-tiempo, a la
//     derecha de la última vela. Es la "superficie de probabilidad de toque" de
//     las opciones, pero sobre el gráfico y sin necesitar datos de opciones.
//
//  2) RÉGIMEN POR HMM. Un modelo oculto de Markov gaussiano de 2 estados (calma /
//     estrés) con filtro hacia delante y parámetros que se aprenden en línea
//     (EM estocástico). El mapa usa la mezcla de ambos estados ponderada por la
//     probabilidad filtrada: en estrés el mapa se ensancha y se inclina solo.
//
//  3) COSTES DESDE LAS VELAS. Spread efectivo con el estimador de Corwin-Schultz
//     (solo máximos y mínimos) e impacto de mercado con la iliquidez de Amihud
//     (|retorno| / volumen monetario). Con tu tamaño de orden estima cuánto
//     moverías el precio y cuánto cuesta el viaje de ida y vuelta; los objetivos
//     que no superan 3× ese coste se marcan como "zona de ruido".
//
//  4) AUTO-CALIBRACIÓN. Cada barra registra su propia predicción (P de tocar ±1 ATR
//     en H barras), la resuelve H barras después y calcula el Brier score y el
//     Brier Skill Score frente a la base climatológica. Si el modelo no tiene
//     habilidad en este activo/timeframe lo dice, y (opcional) corrige el mapa con
//     el factor empírico frecuencia observada / probabilidad predicha.
//
//  Salidas: mapa de calor, mejor objetivo neto de costes arriba y abajo, ratio de
//  ventaja direccional, P(estrés), tabla, alertas y series exportables.
// ============================================================================
indicator("ATLAS — Probabilistic Reach Map", shorttitle="ATLAS", overlay=true, max_boxes_count=200, max_labels_count=100)

// === INPUTS ===
grpG = "Mapa"
levelsK  = input.int(4, "Levels per side", minval=2, maxval=6, group=grpG)
stepMode = input.string("ATR", "Level step unit", options=["ATR", "Percent"], group=grpG)
stepSize = input.float(1.0, "Level step (ATR mult or %)", minval=0.1, maxval=10, step=0.1, group=grpG)
baseH    = input.int(5, "Base horizon (bars); columns = 1x 2x 4x 8x 16x", minval=2, maxval=100, group=grpG)
colWidth = input.int(6, "Column width (bars)", minval=2, maxval=20, group=grpG)
showText = input.bool(true, "Show % in cells", group=grpG)
grpR = "Régimen (HMM 2 estados)"
pStayCalm   = input.float(0.97, "P(stay calm)", minval=0.5, maxval=0.999, step=0.005, group=grpR)
pStayStress = input.float(0.92, "P(stay stress)", minval=0.5, maxval=0.999, step=0.005, group=grpR)
eta         = input.float(0.02, "Online learning rate", minval=0.001, maxval=0.2, step=0.001, group=grpR)
grpC = "Costes y liquidez"
spreadLen     = input.int(20, "Spread estimator window (Corwin-Schultz)", minval=5, maxval=200, group=grpC)
illiqLen      = input.int(60, "Impact estimator window (Amihud)", minval=10, maxval=500, group=grpC)
orderNotional = input.float(10000, "Your order notional (quote currency)", minval=0, group=grpC)
grpS = "Auto-calibración"
calibH   = input.int(20, "Calibration horizon (bars)", minval=3, maxval=100, group=grpS)
calibN   = input.int(150, "Calibration sample (predictions)", minval=30, maxval=400, group=grpS)
applyCal = input.bool(true, "Apply empirical calibration to the map", group=grpS)
grpV = "Visual"
showTable  = input.bool(true, "Show table", group=grpV)
showStress = input.bool(true, "Stress background", group=grpV)

// === BASE ===
lr   = math.log(close / close[1])
atr  = ta.atr(14)
sd50 = ta.stdev(lr, 50)

clampP(x) => math.max(0.0, math.min(1.0, x))

// ============================================================================
// 1 · RÉGIMEN: HMM gaussiano de 2 estados, filtro forward + EM estocástico
// ============================================================================
var bool  hmmInit = false
var float mu0 = 0.0
var float mu1 = 0.0
var float v0  = 1e-6
var float v1  = 4e-6
var float pCalm = 0.8
if not hmmInit and not na(sd50) and sd50 > 0
    mu0 := sd50 * 0.1
    mu1 := -sd50 * 0.2
    v0  := math.pow(sd50 * 0.7, 2)
    v1  := math.pow(sd50 * 1.6, 2)
    hmmInit := true

gaussPdf(x, m, v) =>
    v > 0 ? math.exp(-(x - m) * (x - m) / (2 * v)) / math.sqrt(2 * math.pi * v) : 0.0

if hmmInit and not na(lr)
    prior0 = pCalm * pStayCalm + (1 - pCalm) * (1 - pStayStress)
    prior1 = 1 - prior0
    f0 = gaussPdf(lr, mu0, v0)
    f1 = gaussPdf(lr, mu1, v1)
    denom = prior0 * f0 + prior1 * f1
    post0 = denom > 0 ? prior0 * f0 / denom : prior0
    pCalm := math.max(0.001, math.min(0.999, post0))
    post1 = 1 - pCalm
    // actualización recursiva de parámetros ponderada por la probabilidad a posteriori
    mu0 := mu0 + eta * pCalm * (lr - mu0)
    v0  := v0 + eta * pCalm * ((lr - mu0) * (lr - mu0) - v0)
    mu1 := mu1 + eta * post1 * (lr - mu1)
    v1  := v1 + eta * post1 * ((lr - mu1) * (lr - mu1) - v1)
    // el estado 1 es siempre el más volátil (evita intercambio de etiquetas)
    v0 := math.max(v0, 1e-10)
    v1 := math.max(v1, v0 * 1.2)

pStress = 1 - pCalm
sig0 = math.sqrt(v0)
sig1 = math.sqrt(v1)
muMix  = pCalm * mu0 + pStress * mu1
varMix = pCalm * (v0 + mu0 * mu0) + pStress * (v1 + mu1 * mu1) - muMix * muMix
sigMix = math.sqrt(math.max(varMix, 1e-12))
expDurStress = 1 / (1 - pStayStress)
expDurCalm   = 1 / (1 - pStayCalm)
inStress = pStress > 0.5

// ============================================================================
// 2 · COSTES: spread efectivo (Corwin-Schultz) e impacto (Amihud)
// ============================================================================
hl    = math.log(high / low)
beta  = hl * hl + hl[1] * hl[1]
hh2   = math.max(high, high[1])
ll2   = math.min(low, low[1])
gamma = math.pow(math.log(hh2 / ll2), 2)
k2    = 3 - 2 * math.sqrt(2)
alphaCS = math.max(0.0, (math.sqrt(2 * beta) - math.sqrt(beta)) / k2 - math.sqrt(gamma / k2))
spreadCS = 2 * (math.exp(alphaCS) - 1) / (1 + math.exp(alphaCS))
spread   = ta.sma(spreadCS, spreadLen)                    // fracción del precio
spreadPct = spread * 100

hasVolume = not na(volume) and volume > 0
dollarVol = volume * close
illiqRaw  = hasVolume ? math.abs(lr) / dollarVol : 0.0
illiq     = ta.sma(illiqRaw, illiqLen)                    // |r| por unidad monetaria negociada
impactPct = hasVolume ? illiq * orderNotional * 100 : na  // impacto estimado de tu orden (%)
volToMoveATR = hasVolume and illiq > 0 ? (atr / close) / illiq : na
roundTrip = spreadPct + 2 * nz(impactPct, 0.0)            // coste ida y vuelta (%)

// ============================================================================
// 3 · PROBABILIDAD DE TOQUE (primer paso de un browniano con drift)
// ============================================================================
normCdf(x) =>
    t = 1 / (1 + 0.2316419 * math.abs(x))
    d = 0.3989422804 * math.exp(-x * x / 2)
    p = 1 - d * t * (0.319381530 + t * (-0.356563782 + t * (1.781477937 + t * (-1.821255978 + t * 1.330274429))))
    x >= 0 ? p : 1 - p

// aLog > 0: distancia (log) a la barrera; drift y vol por barra; T en barras
touchProb(aLog, mu, sig, T) =>
    if aLog <= 0
        1.0
    else if sig <= 0 or T <= 0
        mu * T >= aLog ? 1.0 : 0.0
    else
        sT = sig * math.sqrt(T)
        ex = math.exp(math.max(-50.0, math.min(50.0, 2 * mu * aLog / (sig * sig))))
        clampP(normCdf((-aLog + mu * T) / sT) + ex * normCdf((-aLog - mu * T) / sT))

// mezcla de los dos estados del HMM (asume persistencia del régimen en el horizonte)
touchMix(aLog, upward, T) =>
    m0 = upward ? mu0 : -mu0
    m1 = upward ? mu1 : -mu1
    pCalm * touchProb(aLog, m0, sig0, T) + pStress * touchProb(aLog, m1, sig1, T)

// ============================================================================
// 4 · AUTO-CALIBRACIÓN: Brier score y Brier Skill Score sobre predicciones propias
// ============================================================================
var array<float> cpUp   = array.new<float>()
var array<float> cpDn   = array.new<float>()
var array<int>   cStart = array.new<int>()
var array<float> cLvlUp = array.new<float>()
var array<float> cLvlDn = array.new<float>()
var array<float> cMaxH  = array.new<float>()
var array<float> cMinL  = array.new<float>()
var array<float> rP = array.new<float>()      // predicción
var array<float> rO = array.new<float>()      // resultado (0/1)

nPend = array.size(cStart)
if nPend > 0
    for i = nPend - 1 to 0
        array.set(cMaxH, i, math.max(array.get(cMaxH, i), high))
        array.set(cMinL, i, math.min(array.get(cMinL, i), low))
        if bar_index - array.get(cStart, i) >= calibH
            oUp = array.get(cMaxH, i) >= array.get(cLvlUp, i) ? 1.0 : 0.0
            oDn = array.get(cMinL, i) <= array.get(cLvlDn, i) ? 1.0 : 0.0
            array.push(rP, array.get(cpUp, i))
            array.push(rO, oUp)
            array.push(rP, array.get(cpDn, i))
            array.push(rO, oDn)
            while array.size(rP) > calibN
                array.shift(rP)
                array.shift(rO)
            array.remove(cpUp, i)
            array.remove(cpDn, i)
            array.remove(cStart, i)
            array.remove(cLvlUp, i)
            array.remove(cLvlDn, i)
            array.remove(cMaxH, i)
            array.remove(cMinL, i)

// nueva predicción: tocar ±1 ATR dentro de calibH barras
if hmmInit and atr > 0
    lvlUpC = close + atr
    lvlDnC = close - atr
    aUpC = math.log(lvlUpC / close)
    pUpC = touchMix(aUpC, true, calibH)
    pDnC = lvlDnC > 0 ? touchMix(math.log(close / lvlDnC), false, calibH) : 0.5
    array.push(cpUp, pUpC)
    array.push(cpDn, pDnC)
    array.push(cStart, bar_index)
    array.push(cLvlUp, lvlUpC)
    array.push(cLvlDn, lvlDnC)
    array.push(cMaxH, close)
    array.push(cMinL, close)

nB = array.size(rP)
bsSum = 0.0
oSum  = 0.0
pSum  = 0.0
if nB > 0
    for i = 0 to nB - 1
        pp = array.get(rP, i)
        oo = array.get(rO, i)
        bsSum += (pp - oo) * (pp - oo)
        oSum  += oo
        pSum  += pp
brier = nB > 0 ? bsSum / nB : na
oBar  = nB > 0 ? oSum / nB : na
pBar  = nB > 0 ? pSum / nB : na
bsRef = nB > 0 ? oBar * (1 - oBar) : na            // Brier de la base climatológica
bss   = not na(bsRef) and bsRef > 0 ? 1 - brier / bsRef : na
calFactor  = not na(pBar) and pBar > 0 ? math.max(0.5, math.min(1.5, oBar / pBar)) : 1.0
calApplied = applyCal and nB >= 30 ? calFactor : 1.0
skillLabel = na(bss) ? "n/a" : bss > 0.1 ? "SKILLED" : bss > 0 ? "MARGINAL" : "NO SKILL"

// ============================================================================
// VENTAJA DIRECCIONAL (columna central del mapa, primer nivel)
// ============================================================================
stepAbs = stepMode == "ATR" ? stepSize * atr : close * stepSize / 100
midT    = baseH * 4
pUpMid  = stepAbs > 0 ? clampP(touchMix(math.log((close + stepAbs) / close), true, midT) * calApplied) : na
pDnMid  = stepAbs > 0 and close - stepAbs > 0 ? clampP(touchMix(math.log(close / (close - stepAbs)), false, midT) * calApplied) : na
edgeRatio = not na(pUpMid) and not na(pDnMid) and pDnMid > 0 ? pUpMid / pDnMid : na
noiseStep = stepAbs / close * 100 < 3 * roundTrip

// ============================================================================
// MAPA DE CALOR EN EL ESPACIO FUTURO PRECIO-TIEMPO
// ============================================================================
nCols = 5
var array<box>   cells   = array.new<box>()
var array<label> colLbls = array.new<label>()
string bestUpTxt = "-"
string bestDnTxt = "-"
if barstate.islast and hmmInit and stepAbs > 0
    if array.size(cells) == 0
        for i = 0 to 2 * levelsK * nCols - 1
            array.push(cells, box.new(bar_index, close, bar_index, close, border_color=color.new(color.gray, 75), bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 90), text_size=size.tiny, text_color=color.white))
        for j = 0 to nCols - 1
            array.push(colLbls, label.new(bar_index, close, "", style=label.style_label_down, color=color.new(color.black, 60), textcolor=color.white, size=size.tiny))
    bestUp = -1e9
    bestDn = -1e9
    for j = 0 to nCols - 1
        Tj = baseH * math.round(math.pow(2, j))
        x1 = bar_index + 1 + j * colWidth
        x2 = x1 + colWidth - 1
        lb = array.get(colLbls, j)
        label.set_xy(lb, x1 + math.floor(colWidth / 2), close + levelsK * stepAbs)
        label.set_text(lb, str.tostring(Tj) + "b")
        for k = 1 to levelsK
            distPct = k * stepAbs / close * 100
            isNoise = distPct < 3 * roundTrip
            // --- arriba ---
            lvlU = close + k * stepAbs
            pU = clampP(touchMix(math.log(lvlU / close), true, Tj) * calApplied)
            bxU = array.get(cells, j * 2 * levelsK + (k - 1))
            box.set_lefttop(bxU, x1, lvlU)
            box.set_rightbottom(bxU, x2, lvlU - stepAbs)
            box.set_bgcolor(bxU, color.from_gradient(pU, 0, 1, color.new(color.green, 93), color.new(color.green, 30)))
            box.set_border_color(bxU, isNoise ? color.new(color.orange, 40) : color.new(color.gray, 75))
            box.set_text(bxU, showText ? str.tostring(pU * 100, "#") + "%" : "")
            netU = distPct - roundTrip
            if netU > 0 and pU * netU > bestUp
                bestUp := pU * netU
                bestUpTxt := "+" + str.tostring(k) + " step (" + str.tostring(lvlU, format.mintick) + ") in " + str.tostring(Tj) + "b · P " + str.tostring(pU * 100, "#") + "% · net " + str.tostring(netU, "#.##") + "%"
            // --- abajo ---
            lvlD = close - k * stepAbs
            pD = lvlD > 0 ? clampP(touchMix(math.log(close / lvlD), false, Tj) * calApplied) : 1.0
            bxD = array.get(cells, j * 2 * levelsK + levelsK + (k - 1))
            box.set_lefttop(bxD, x1, lvlD + stepAbs)
            box.set_rightbottom(bxD, x2, lvlD)
            box.set_bgcolor(bxD, color.from_gradient(pD, 0, 1, color.new(color.red, 93), color.new(color.red, 30)))
            box.set_border_color(bxD, isNoise ? color.new(color.orange, 40) : color.new(color.gray, 75))
            box.set_text(bxD, showText ? str.tostring(pD * 100, "#") + "%" : "")
            netD = distPct - roundTrip
            if netD > 0 and pD * netD > bestDn
                bestDn := pD * netD
                bestDnTxt := "-" + str.tostring(k) + " step (" + str.tostring(lvlD, format.mintick) + ") in " + str.tostring(Tj) + "b · P " + str.tostring(pD * 100, "#") + "% · net " + str.tostring(netD, "#.##") + "%"

// ============================================================================
// VISUAL, TABLA, EXPORTS, ALERTAS
// ============================================================================
bgcolor(showStress ? color.new(color.red, math.round(100 - 12 * pStress)) : na, title="Stress probability")
plot(pStress, "ATLAS P(stress) (export)", display=display.none)
plot(edgeRatio, "ATLAS edge ratio up/down (export)", display=display.none)
plot(bss, "ATLAS Brier skill (export)", display=display.none)
plot(roundTrip, "ATLAS round-trip cost % (export)", display=display.none)
plot(pUpMid, "ATLAS P(up 1 step, mid horizon) (export)", display=display.none)
plot(pDnMid, "ATLAS P(down 1 step, mid horizon) (export)", display=display.none)

if showTable
    var table t = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 15, bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 55))
    table.cell(t, 0, 0, "REGIME", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 0, (inStress ? "STRESS " : "CALM ") + str.tostring(pStress * 100, "#") + "% stress", bgcolor=color.new(inStress ? color.red : color.green, 40), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 1, "Calm μ / σ per bar", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 1, str.tostring(mu0 * 100, "#.###") + "% / " + str.tostring(sig0 * 100, "#.##") + "%", text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 2, "Stress μ / σ per bar", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 2, str.tostring(mu1 * 100, "#.###") + "% / " + str.tostring(sig1 * 100, "#.##") + "%", text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 3, "Expected regime length", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 3, "calm ~" + str.tostring(expDurCalm, "#") + "b · stress ~" + str.tostring(expDurStress, "#") + "b", text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 4, "Effective spread (CS)", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 4, str.tostring(spreadPct, "#.###") + "%", text_color=color.orange, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 5, "Impact of your order", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 5, na(impactPct) ? "n/a (no volume)" : str.tostring(impactPct, "#.###") + "%", text_color=color.orange, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 6, "Round-trip cost", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 6, str.tostring(roundTrip, "#.###") + "%" + (noiseStep ? "  ⚠ step < 3× cost" : ""), text_color=noiseStep ? color.red : color.orange, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 7, "Notional to move 1 ATR", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 7, na(volToMoveATR) ? "n/a" : str.tostring(volToMoveATR, "#"), text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 8, "Brier / skill (n=" + str.tostring(nB) + ")", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 8, (na(brier) ? "-" : str.tostring(brier, "#.###")) + " / " + (na(bss) ? "-" : str.tostring(bss, "#.##")) + "  " + skillLabel, text_color=na(bss) ? color.gray : bss > 0.1 ? color.lime : bss > 0 ? color.orange : color.red, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 9, "Calibration (obs/pred)", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 9, str.tostring(calFactor, "#.##") + (applyCal and nB >= 30 ? "  applied" : "  not applied"), text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 10, "P(+1 step) / P(-1 step) @" + str.tostring(midT) + "b", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 10, (na(pUpMid) ? "-" : str.tostring(pUpMid * 100, "#") + "%") + " / " + (na(pDnMid) ? "-" : str.tostring(pDnMid * 100, "#") + "%"), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 11, "Edge ratio up/down", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 11, na(edgeRatio) ? "-" : str.tostring(edgeRatio, "#.##"), text_color=na(edgeRatio) ? color.gray : edgeRatio > 1.25 ? color.lime : edgeRatio < 0.8 ? color.red : color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 12, "Best net target ↑", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 12, bestUpTxt, text_color=color.lime, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 13, "Best net target ↓", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 13, bestDnTxt, text_color=color.red, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 14, "Map", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 14, str.tostring(levelsK) + "×" + str.tostring(stepSize, "#.##") + (stepMode == "ATR" ? " ATR" : "%") + " · " + str.tostring(baseH) + "b base · orange border = noise zone", text_color=color.gray, text_size=size.small)

// === ALERTAS ===
alertcondition(inStress and not inStress[1], "ATLAS Stress regime", "ATLAS: HMM switched to STRESS state")
alertcondition(not inStress and inStress[1], "ATLAS Calm regime", "ATLAS: HMM switched back to CALM state")
alertcondition(not na(edgeRatio) and edgeRatio > 1.5 and edgeRatio[1] <= 1.5 and not na(bss) and bss > 0, "ATLAS Upside edge", "ATLAS: upside touch probability > 1.5x downside with positive model skill")
alertcondition(not na(edgeRatio) and edgeRatio < 0.67 and edgeRatio[1] >= 0.67 and not na(bss) and bss > 0, "ATLAS Downside edge", "ATLAS: downside touch probability > 1.5x upside with positive model skill")
alertcondition(not na(bss) and bss < 0 and bss[1] >= 0, "ATLAS Model lost skill", "ATLAS: Brier skill turned negative - do not trust the map")

Overview

Levels are spaced in ATR or percent steps. The estimate uses a closed-form barrier formula with a two-state calm or stress regime model, plus spread and market impact estimates from candle data for a chosen order size, and an empirical calibration check. A table can be shown.

Details

Published by

AssetWhisper on GitHub

Type

Indicator, Pine Script v5

Draws

On the price chart

Category

Volatility & bands, Support & resistance

Markets

Any symbol

Timeframes

Any timeframe

Risk Notes

No repainting, lookahead or stacked entries were found in its code or README. That says nothing about how well it works: test it first.

Settings

The inputs you can change from the gear icon on the chart. Defaults are the author's.

SettingTypeDefaultVariable
Levels per sideint4levelsK
Level step unitstringATRstepMode
Level step (ATR mult or %)float1.0stepSize
Base horizon (bars); columns = 1x 2x 4x 8x 16xint5baseH
Column width (bars)int6colWidth
Show % in cellsbooltrueshowText
P(stay calm)float0.97pStayCalm
P(stay stress)float0.92pStayStress
Online learning ratefloat0.02eta
Spread estimator window (Corwin-Schultz)int20spreadLen
Impact estimator window (Amihud)int60illiqLen
Your order notional (quote currency)float10000orderNotional
Show all 17 settings
SettingTypeDefaultVariable
Calibration horizon (bars)int20calibH
Calibration sample (predictions)int150calibN
Apply empirical calibration to the mapbooltrueapplyCal
Show tablebooltrueshowTable
Stress backgroundbooltrueshowStress
Third-party code. ForexR did not write, test or endorse this script, and the summary above was generated automatically from its code and README. Indicators describe the past, and a strategy's backtest can look better than live trading, especially when a script repaints. Check it in the Strategy Tester and on a demo account before you rely on it.

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