How does the US Nonfarm Payrolls report affect Gold (XAU/USD) today?

Nonfarm Payrolls is on today's calendar at 12:30 UTC, previous 162 and estimate 90, in a high-impact block with Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. Factory Orders follow at 14:00 UTC. Those are the scheduled US prints; they do not by themselves prove the next move in Gold.

What are the key support and resistance levels for XAU/USD ahead of the jobs data?

Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 4192.73 and nearest support is the daily pivot at 4169.7. The bullish scenario triggers at R1 at 4200.28 toward R2 at 4223.3; the bearish scenario triggers at S1 at 4146.68 toward S2 at 4116.1.

Do Gold (XAU/USD) timeframes agree today?

No. The daily trend is down, the four-hour trend is mixed and the hourly trend is up. Daily RSI is 40.6 and price is below the 200-period EMA at 4424.9, which is why the working bias is neutral.

How does today's Gold range compare with ATR?

The day high is 4196.77 and the day low is 4133.61, a 63.16-dollar range. That is 69% of the 14-day ATR at 91.84.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast Today: Neutral Into US Jobs

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 2, 2026, 06:40 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold (XAU/USD) is 4187.32, up 0.24% in Asia. Daily, H4 and H1 trends disagree, so the bias is neutral, with 4192.73 the nearest resistance into US jobs data.

Focused Man Analyzing Stock Market Data On Screen

Price4,187.32

Day change+0.24%

Day range4,133.61 - 4,196.77

ATR (14)91.84

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	4,253.88	S1	4,146.68
R2	4,223.30	S2	4,116.10
R1	4,200.28	S3	4,093.08
Previous day high	4,192.73	Previous day low	4,139.13
20-day high	4,490.55	20-day low	4,110.77
Daily pivot 4,169.70. Data as of 2026-10-02 06:36 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 4,169.70, R1 4,200.28, R2 4,223.30, S1 4,146.68, S2 4,116.10 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — Gold (XAU/USD), 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-02 06:36 UTC.

Where Gold (XAU/USD) stands now

Gold (XAU/USD) last printed 4187.32 in the Asia session, up 0.24% on the day, a 10.07 gain from the previous close at 4177.25. The day high is 4196.77 and the day low is 4133.61. The 63.16-dollar day range is 69% of the 14-day ATR at 91.84. The live Gold (XAU/USD) rate, chart and pivots sit 5.41 dollars below the previous day high at 4192.73, the nearest resistance.

Nearest support is the daily pivot at 4169.7, 17.62 dollars under the last print. The day open is 4177.63. Daily trend is down, the four-hour state is mixed and the hourly trend is up, so the evidence leans neither way. The cap that matters most from here is the previous day high at 4192.73, with R1 at 4200.28 and round 4200 stacked just above it.

Trend and momentum

The daily trend is down. The 20-period EMA is 4282.99, the 50-period EMA is 4310.78, and price is below the 200-period EMA at 4424.9. Daily RSI is 40.6. Gold is down 2.02% over five days and down 6.39% over twenty days.

On the four-hour chart the state is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 4180.3 and the 50-period EMA at 4219.39. The hourly trend is up, with the 20-period EMA at 4173.63 and the 50-period EMA at 4172.15. Those three timeframes do not agree, so the working bias is neutral.

Levels that matter

The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 4192.73. The nearest support is the daily pivot at 4169.7. Pivots then line up as R1 at 4200.28, R2 at 4223.3 and R3 at 4253.88 on the upside, and S1 at 4146.68, S2 at 4116.1 and S3 at 4093.08 on the downside. The guide to how pivot points work lays out that structure. The previous day low is 4139.13.

The five-day range has a high at 4315.64 and a low at 4110.77. The twenty-day range has a high at 4490.55 and a low at 4110.77. Round 4200 sits above the market and round 4150 sits below it. Yesterday's high was 4192.73, the low was 4139.13, the close was 4177.25 and the open was 4160.96, a 53.6-dollar range.

Bullish scenario and bearish scenario

A break above R1 at 4200.28 would open the way to R2 at 4223.3, a 23.02-dollar span already marked on the pivot grid. A move back below the daily pivot at 4169.7 would invalidate that view.

If price instead loses S1 at 4146.68, the next objective is S2 at 4116.1, a 30.58-dollar span on the same grid. Reclaiming the daily pivot at 4169.7 would take that bearish case off the table.

What could move it today

Later today at 12:30 UTC the United States publishes Nonfarm Payrolls (previous 162, estimate 90), Average Hourly Earnings year-over-year (previous 3.1, estimate 3.2), Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month (previous 0.3, estimate 0.3), the Unemployment Rate (previous 4.1, estimate 4.1), the U6 Underemployment Rate (previous 7.7) and the Labor Force Participation Rate (previous 61.6). Factory Orders month-over-month print at 14:00 UTC (previous 0.9, estimate 0.1). The guide to using an economic calendar keeps that cluster in one view.

FX Street and FXEmpire both tie the session to the US jobs report and a firm dollar as the backdrop for rate expectations.

As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net long Gold (XAU/USD), with 90% of speculative futures on the long side. Speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) on the week, to 225853 net contracts from 230338.

US Treasury yields at the October 1 close showed the 2-year at 4.78%, down 10 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, down 5 basis points. The 3-month yield was 4.17% and the 2s10s curve stood at 46 basis points.

News sentiment is 73% bullish and 27% bearish, with news volume at 92% of the 90-day average. The opportunity read scores 54 and is labelled bullish.

Bottom line

Gold (XAU/USD) is 4187.32 in Asia, up 0.24%, with mixed trends and the previous day high at 4192.73 the nearest test. R1 at 4200.28 is the bullish trigger and S1 at 4146.68 is the bearish trigger, each invalidated back through the daily pivot at 4169.7. Until daily, four-hour and hourly states line up, the working bias stays neutral.