Forex Week Ahead: Fed, ECB and BoC on Deck

Week ahead Neutral bias Oct 25, 2026, 21:08 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

Cash forex is shut, and EUR/USD’s last print is 1.12204, between the daily pivot at 1.1204 and R1 at 1.12242. Trends disagree across the board, with Tuesday’s ECB Bank Lending Survey first on a calendar that also holds the BoC, the Fed and the ECB.

Cash forex is shut, so every figure here is a last print before the close, not a live quote. The forex week ahead has no single lean: daily and four-hour trends conflict, and the bias is neutral. EUR/USD last printed 1.12204, up 0.16% on the day, with a five-day change of -0.15%, between the daily pivot at 1.1204 and R1 at 1.12242. The daily trend is down and the four-hour trend is mixed.

Last prints across the board

GBP/USD last printed 1.33645, down 0.09% on the day and up 0.28% over five days, with a mixed daily trend, between S1 at 1.33553 and the daily pivot at 1.33811. USD/JPY last printed 156.994, up 0.1% on the day, with a five-day change of -0.62%. Both its daily trend and its four-hour trend are down, while the last print is still between the daily pivot at 156.678 and R1 at 157.299. AUD/USD last printed 0.70209, down 0.19% on the day and up 1.11% over five days, between S1 at 0.70131 and the daily pivot at 0.70252, daily trend mixed and four-hour trend up.

USD/CAD last printed 1.40388, up 0.26% on the day, with a five-day change of -0.7%, already above R1 at 1.40242 and beyond the top of the pivot ladder, with both trends mixed. Gold last printed 3997.79, down 0.66% on the day, with a five-day change of -3.99%, between S1 at 3970.93 and the daily pivot at 4002.46, and both trends down. WTI last printed 102.723, up 4.08% on the day and up 3.78% over five days, between the daily pivot at 101.507 and R1 at 104.578, with both trends up.

Bitcoin last printed 80347.93, unchanged on the day, with a five-day change of -2.88%, between S1 at 79897 and the daily pivot at 80411.61, and the daily trend is mixed. Ethereum last printed 2342.92, down 0.54% on the day, with a five-day change of -2.58%, between the daily pivot at 2339.48 and R1 at 2403.01, daily trend down. The Nasdaq 100 last printed 28996.7, up 0.31% on the day, with a five-day change of -0.65%, between the daily pivot at 28988.9 and R1 at 29159.7, daily trend mixed and four-hour trend down.

What the calendar lists, by day

Tuesday’s high-impact euro items are the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and a speech by ECB President Lagarde at 17:00 UTC. The economic calendar shows no previous reading and no estimate for either one.

On Wednesday, RBA Governor Bullock speaks at 00:15 UTC. At 00:30 UTC the trimmed-mean CPI is due, previous 3.6 and no estimate listed, with the CPI at the same time, previous 4 and an estimate of 4.2. At 13:45 UTC the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy report, interest-rate decision and statement, previous rate 2.25 and estimate 2.5, then the press conference at 14:30 UTC. At 18:00 UTC the Fed interest-rate decision and policy statement are due, previous 4 and estimate 4, with the FOMC press conference at 18:30 UTC.

Thursday at 12:30 UTC brings core PCE, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3 on the month, and previous 3 and estimate 3.1 on the year, plus annualized GDP, previous 2.2 and estimate 3.2, and the GDP price index, previous 6.1 with no estimate listed. At 13:15 UTC the ECB publishes its policy statement, the deposit-facility rate (previous 2.5, estimate 2.5) and the main refinancing rate (previous 2.65, estimate 2.65), followed by the press conference at 13:45 UTC.

Levels around the exposed markets

EUR/USD lines up with Tuesday’s survey and Lagarde speech and with Thursday’s ECB decision. On the pivot ladder, the daily pivot is 1.1204, R1 is 1.12242 and S1 is 1.11822. A push through R1 at 1.12242 would leave price above first resistance. Falling back through the daily pivot at 1.1204 would instead put S1 at 1.11822 underneath.

AUD/USD is the pair beside Wednesday’s Australian CPI and the Bullock speech. Reclaiming the daily pivot at 0.70252 would put R1 at 0.70468 overhead. If S1 at 0.70131 gives way, that rebound is no longer the path in front of price. USD/CAD is already above R1 at 1.40242 ahead of the Bank of Canada. Holding beyond R1 is a different picture from a retreat through the daily pivot at 1.39959 toward S1 at 1.39741.

Gold’s last print is between S1 at 3970.93 and the daily pivot at 4002.46. A recovery through 4002.46 would bring R1 at 4029.31 into view, whereas a move back under 3970.93 would leave the pivot overhead. The Nasdaq 100 remains between the daily pivot at 28988.9 and R1 at 29159.7, with S1 at 28825.8 below, beside the Fed decision and Thursday’s US data. A WTI break above R1 at 104.578, or a return under the daily pivot at 101.507 toward S1 at 99.651, is an oil range only and not a statement about the dollar.

Positioning, yields and headlines

As of the week to October 20, speculators were net short EUR/USD, net short GBP/USD, net short USD/JPY and net short AUD/USD, and net long Gold (XAU/USD), net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) and net long USD/CAD. Over that reported week, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD, reduced net short GBP/USD, added to net short USD/JPY, added to net short AUD/USD, reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD), reduced net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), added to net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), reduced net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) and reduced net long USD/CAD.

US Treasury yields at the October 23 close showed the three-month yield at 4.22%, the two-year yield at 4.69%, up 4 basis points from October 22, and the ten-year yield at 5%, up 4 basis points, with the two-year/ten-year spread at 31 basis points. Those yields are context beside Wednesday’s Fed decision, not a cause of the last prints.

FXEmpire and Forexcom coverage places the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, oil, gold and the Australian dollar in the same broad newsflow. Action Forex has added weekly outlook notes on major dollar pairs, and that coverage is not treated as the reason any last print landed where it did.

Bottom line

WTI is up on both the daily and four-hour trends, gold is down on both, and EUR/USD is down on the daily trend but mixed on the four-hour trend. USD/CAD sits beyond R1 with a five-day change of -0.7% and mixed trends. The forex week ahead stays neutral on that split. From Tuesday’s ECB Bank Lending Survey and Lagarde speech, the list runs through Wednesday’s Australian CPI, the Bank of Canada and the Fed, then Thursday’s US PCE, GDP and ECB rates. Pivots, R1 and S1 only locate the last prints, with related notes on the market analysis page.