Forex Week Ahead: RBA Minutes and US CPI Set the Tone

Week ahead Neutral bias Oct 11, 2026, 21:07 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD sit on the soft side of their daily pivots while USD/CAD and gold hold firmer, with the RBA minutes, US CPI and a run of central bank speeches dominating this week's calendar.

Where the Majors Stand Heading Into the Week

Cash forex is shut as the new week approaches, so the figures below are the last prints before the close rather than live quotes. The picture across pairs is uneven: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head into the week on the soft side of their daily pivots while USD/CAD and gold are firmer, leaving the near-term bias neutral rather than one-directional.

EUR/USD closed at 1.12014, down 0.07% on the day and down 0.46% over the past five sessions, sitting between support at S1 1.11781 and the daily pivot at 1.12101. Both the daily and four-hour trend point down, and the 14-day RSI at 25.1 puts the pair deep in oversold territory. A close back above the pivot at 1.12101 would open a path toward R1 at 1.12334, while a break of S1 at 1.11781 would keep the pair aligned with its five-day slide.

GBP/USD closed at 1.3232, up 0.04% on the day but down 0.06% over five days, holding between the daily pivot at 1.32288 and R1 at 1.32524; the daily trend reads down even as the four-hour trend is mixed, a conflicting signal that argues against a firm directional read. AUD/USD closed at 0.69621, down 0.30% on the day, between S1 at 0.69578 and the pivot at 0.69726, with both the daily and four-hour trend down. USD/JPY closed at 158.121, down 0.11% on the day, between S1 at 157.868 and the pivot at 158.138, with a mixed daily and four-hour trend. USD/CAD is the clearer mover, closing at 1.42714, up 0.11% on the day and up 0.16% over five days, between the pivot at 1.42528 and R1 at 1.42999, with both the daily and four-hour trend up and the 14-day RSI at 69.1 approaching overbought levels.

Gold closed at 4194.39, up 1.48% on the day and up 1.33% over five sessions, between the daily pivot at 4177.58 and R1 at 4224.27; the daily trend is down but the four-hour trend is mixed. Bitcoin closed flat on the day at 83519.72 but is down 2.42% over five sessions, trading between its pivot at 83440.67 and R1 at 84183.73 with the daily trend up. Ethereum closed at 2535.27, up 1.25% on the day yet down 6.43% over five sessions, and is trading above R1 at 2519.37, beyond the top of its pivot ladder.

This Week's Calendar: RBA Minutes, ECB and BoC Speeches, and US Inflation Data

The calendar is light at the start of the week but fills quickly from Tuesday. Tracking the timing below with an economic calendar guide can help frame the data risk.

• Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes at 00:30 UTC, with no previous reading or estimate attached; Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) at 06:00 UTC, previous 3.3% and estimate also 3.3%.
• Wednesday: ECB President Lagarde speaks at 02:10 UTC and again at 08:30 UTC; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks at 06:05 UTC; US Consumer Price Index (YoY) lands at 12:30 UTC, previous 3.4% and estimate 3.7%, alongside monthly CPI (previous 0.4%, estimate 0.6%), core CPI MoM (previous 0.3%, estimate 0.2%) and core CPI YoY (previous 2.4%, estimate 2.5%).
• Thursday: Australia's Employment Change (previous 39.5, estimate 20) and Unemployment Rate (previous 4.6%, estimate 4.6%) at 00:30 UTC; US Retail Sales Control Group (previous 1.4%, no estimate given), headline Retail Sales MoM (previous 1.2%, estimate 0.3%) and core Producer Price Index YoY (previous 4.6%, estimate 4.4%), all at 12:30 UTC.
• Friday: Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at 02:00 UTC, followed by BoC Governor Macklem again at 04:15 UTC.

Pairs and Metals Most Exposed to the Calendar

AUD/USD carries the most direct event risk early in the week, with the RBA minutes on Tuesday and Australian jobs data on Thursday both on the docket; the levels to watch are the pivot at 0.69726, R1 at 0.69981 and S1 at 0.69578. EUR/USD faces Germany's inflation print on Tuesday, two Lagarde speeches on Wednesday and the US CPI release the same day, with its pivot at 1.12101, R1 at 1.12334 and S1 at 1.11781 the levels in view.

USD/CAD sits closest to the BoC, with Governor Macklem speaking twice, Wednesday and Friday, on top of the US data cluster; its pivot is at 1.42528, R1 at 1.42999 and S1 at 1.42082. GBP/USD has no UK data this week but Governor Bailey speaks Friday against the backdrop of the same US releases, with the pivot at 1.32288, R1 at 1.32524 and S1 at 1.32083 the reference points. Gold's exposure runs through the same US inflation and retail sales figures given its dollar sensitivity, with the pivot at 4177.58, R1 at 4224.27 and S1 at 4147.71 the levels in focus; the pivot point calculator can be used to track how these levels shift as new daily data arrives.

Newsflow Into the Week

Coverage tracked by Forex.com flags AUD/USD as exposed to a crosscurrent of geopolitical headlines, the RBA minutes and this week's jobs and US inflation data. Separately, FX Street and ExchangeRates carried a cluster of longer-range forecasts on gold and other majors, pointing to continued attention on the metals rally.

Positioning and Yields Into the Week

As of the week to October 6, CFTC data showed speculators net short EUR/USD and adding to that short, net short GBP/USD and also adding to it, and net short AUD/USD with the short increased again. USD/CAD was net long and getting longer over the same week, USD/JPY was net short with the short extended, gold's futures positioning was net long but reduced from the prior week, and Bitcoin futures were net long and increasing.

US Treasury yields closed October 9 with the 2-year at 4.80%, up 5 basis points from October 8, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points over the same span, leaving the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points.

Bottom Line

Heading into a calendar loaded with the RBA minutes, a run of ECB, BoC and BoE speeches, and US CPI, retail sales and PPI data, no single currency is leading uniformly: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD sit on the soft side of their daily pivots while USD/CAD holds above its own. Gold and Bitcoin head into the week with daily trends still mixed against their own five-day moves, leaving the broader setup neutral until the week's data and speeches clarify direction. The currency strength meter can help track how each currency behaves across pairs as these events land.