Forex Market Update: Asia Session Sees Gold Slip, Dollar Mixed

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 16, 2026, 00:36 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold trades lower on the day but holds above the daily pivot while the dollar is mixed against the majors, with central bank speeches from the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoC on the calendar before London opens.

Asia Session Snapshot

Crypto leads the board into the session, with Ethereum up 0.92% and Bitcoin up 0.4% on the day. Among forex majors, USD/JPY is the firmest mover at up 0.11%, followed by USD/CAD up 0.07% and AUD/USD up 0.03%, while GBP/USD is flat to lower at down 0.02% and EUR/USD lags the major pairs at down 0.08%. On the broader board, the Nasdaq 100 is the weakest instrument at down 0.43%, with gold down 0.37% and WTI crude down 0.31%. For a cross-pair read on which currency is pulling the most weight right now, the currency strength meter breaks the moves down by individual currency.

Market Board

Setups Worth Watching

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold sits between the daily pivot at 4149.24 and R1 at 4198.58, after a session that ranged between a day high of 4172.58 and a day low of 4151.76. A push through R1 at 4198.58 would bring the next resistance band into view, while a slip back under the pivot at 4149.24 would open the way toward S1 at 4121.22. The daily trend reads down with the four-hour trend mixed, and the 14-day RSI at 45.5 sits in neutral territory; the five-day change is still positive at 0.53%. The pivot point calculator can map these levels against other timeframes.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD trades between S1 at 0.68813 and the daily pivot at 0.69303, last at 0.69207. A recovery back above the pivot at 0.69303 would put R1 at 0.69673 in range, while a break below S1 at 0.68813 would expose further downside. Both the daily and four-hour trends point down, and the 14-day RSI at 33.9 is on the soft side; the five-day change stands at -0.50%.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY holds between the daily pivot at 157.936 and R1 at 158.344, last at 158.139 after a day high of 158.161 and a day low of 157.904. Clearing R1 at 158.344 would shift focus higher, while slipping back under the pivot at 157.936 would risk a retest of S1 at 157.557. Daily and four-hour trends both read mixed, with the 14-day RSI at 52.1 near the midpoint.

Newsflow and Yields Backdrop

Overnight coverage from FX Street and FXEmpire centered on gold demand and dollar tone, touching on sovereign buying interest and support levels for the metal, while Reuters noted Indian fund managers curbing bulk allocations to gold-backed funds with the festive season approaching. Forex.com separately pointed to a swing in the Australian dollar tied to a surprise in the country's jobs data.

For context, US Treasury yields eased into the October 15 close, with the 10-year yield at 5.10%, down 9 basis points, and the 2-year yield at 4.77%, down 5 basis points — a backdrop ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech later in the session.

Calendar Ahead

• 02:00 UTC today: BoE Governor Bailey speech (High impact)
• 02:30 UTC today: ECB's Nagel speech (Medium impact)
• 03:30 UTC today: Fed Chair Warsh speech (High impact)
• 04:15 UTC today: BoC Governor Macklem speech (High impact)
• 09:00 UTC today: Eurozone and Italian inflation data, including the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), estimated at 2.5%
• 13:15 UTC today: US Industrial Production (MoM), estimated at 0.4% versus a previous reading of 0.0%

All four central bank speeches land before London opens at 07:00 UTC, making them the main scheduled risk for the remainder of the Asia session. The guide to using an economic calendar covers how to track high-impact releases like these across sessions.

Bottom Line

The dollar's picture is mixed rather than directional: it is firmer against the yen and Canadian dollar on the day but softer against the Australian dollar, with daily and four-hour trends disagreeing on both GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Gold and the Nasdaq 100 are the session's weaker instruments while Ethereum and Bitcoin lead, and four central bank speakers are still to come before London opens at 07:00 UTC.